A comparative analysis of the Moldova’s national security options in the wake of the Russian aggression in Ukraine.

27 January 2015

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A comparative analysis of the Moldova’s national security options in the wake of the Russian aggression in Ukraine.
On the 20th of January, the Association for Foreign Policy (AFP), has organized, in partnership with the Information and Documentation Centre on NATO in Moldova (IDC on NATO), a meeting dedicated to the Comparative analysis of the national security options of the Republic of Moldova in the context of the Russian aggression in Ukraine. Security experts, representatives of the civil society and of the academic environment, of the government, diplomats, as well as journalists, were invited to attend the discussions of the round-table.
Three studies issued by the Association for Foreign Policy, with the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, the Eastern European Foundation, and that of the Swedish government, were discussed at this round-table.
The first study was presented by its author – Dumitru Manzarari, an expert on the security sector issues. The paper provided a research on the following topic: Conflict technologies in the post-Soviet area:Dangers of foreign indirect aggression in Moldova and potential responses“. In his presentation, Mr. Manzarari spoke of the dangers caused by the annexation of Crimea and the armed rebellion in Donbas. In his opinion, the ease with which these events took place in Ukraine requires consideration of the possibility for Moldova to be exposed to some similar risks and dangers. During his presentation, Mr. Manzarari identified a number of preconditions that could facilitate the reiteration of the Ukrainian scenario in the Republic of Moldova; he took under consideration the instability of the social-political situation, the centre vs regions cleavages, the interethnic tensions, the lack of political cohesion, corruption, economic inequality, as well as the absence of a clear position of the Rep. of Moldova’s government in regard with the situation in Ukraine.
The second research study referred to the Ukrainian crisis and its impact concerning the security of the Republic of Moldova, and was presented by its author – Corneliu Ciurea, Programme Director at “IDIS Viitorul”. The author emphasized the way in which Russia’ aggression against Ukraine is influencing the debate around the whole idea of neutrality, and that the latter is increasingly losing its relevance. The neutrality is indeed becoming an obsolete concept, especially in the case when Russia does not respect the rules that are currently being recognized on the international arena. Nevertheless, the author considers that the neutrality still remains indispensable for Moldova, because in his opinion, a different orientation can multiply the threats and risks confronting our country at this stage.
The last study introduced on this occasion was the Comparative analysis of the national security options of the Republic of Moldova in the context of the Russian aggression in Ukraine, whose author is Mihai Popsoi, Associate Expert at the AFP. During his presentation, Mr. Popsoi proposed a comparative analysis of four alternative security options for the Rep. of Moldova: 1) the present status-quo: 2) Moldova’s accession to NATO; 3) Accession to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), set up by Russia; 4) accession to the EU and adherence to the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP); 5) the establishment of a new mechanism for the regional cooperation in the defense sector. The author suggested the following criteria in order to evaluate the proposed options: a) gained security level; b) costs; c) technical and administrative  feasibility; and  d) social and political feasibility.”
The event was intended to launch some competent discussions  regarding the necessity of taking into account different options of improving the security of the Republic of Moldova.The three presentations were accompanied by a series of debates during which the attendants had the opportunity to discuss the views expressed by the authors.